The GOP is spending millions on transphobic ads. Polls suggest it may backfire.

Republicans have spent over $65 million on transphobic political ads since August in a bid to win suburban female voters over fears of trans women in sports and taxpayer-funded transitional medical care for prisoners, an analysis by The New York Times revealed.

However, new polling indicates that most voters aren’t worried about gender-affirming care and are less likely to support transphobic political candidates.

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“The devil works hard, but Petty Gonia works harder,” the drag performer wrote of her efforts to counter Trump’s hate.

Recently, Donald Trump aired a transphobic ad attacking Kamala Harris’ support of providing lifesaving care to trans inmates (something required by federal law). The ad also showed pictures of her next to a drag queen, a trans woman, and a nonbinary person.

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“Kamala is for they/them,” the 30-second ad says. “President Trump is for you.” Trump reportedly spent $15.5 million airing the ads.

In Ohio, a Senate Republican super PAC has aired ads accusing Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) of “allowing transgender biological males in girls’ sports.”

In Montana, Republicans are airing five ads accusing Sen. Jon Tester (D-NV) of wanting trans women in sports and bathrooms, painting him as too liberal for the state.

Similar ads against vulnerable Democratic incumbents have also aired in Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin.

The ads reflect Republicans’ transphobic rhetoric and legislation as they’ve introduced over 100 bills nationwide restricting gender-affirming care and trans participation in sports. They’ve also repeatedly claimed that trans people and their allies are sexually predatory “groomers” who threaten the safety of women and children, rhetoric that encourages violence against trans people.

Brad Todd, a Republican creator behind some of the ads, told The Times, “It’s one of the issues where Democrats are furthest from the center of the country. They are doing something that is totally illogical to appease a tiny slice that is very radical in their base.”

However, Kelley Robinson, president of the Human Rights Campaign (HRC), said transphobic ads failed to secure Republican victories in 2022 and 2023. She predicts they’ll fail again this year.

“It shows that Republicans are desperate right now,” Robinson said. “Instead of articulating how they’re going to make the economy better or our schools safer, they’re focused on sowing fear and chaos.”

Polling suggests that Robinson may be correct.

While a 2023 Gallup poll showed that only 26% of Americans think trans athletes should be allowed to play on sports teams that fit their gender identity, polls in five battleground states conducted by The New York Times and Siena College show that majorities of Americans think society should accept transgender people’s gender identities.

Recent HRC polling shows that only 5% of voters say they’re concerned about gender-affirming care — comparatively, 52% are more concerned about economic inflation raising the cost of living. Additionally, 61% said they won’t support candidates who support banning gender-affirming care — including 41% of Republicans.

The polling also found that 70% of voters feel anti-LGBTQ+ bills have gone too far and that politicians have targeted trans people to divide Americans and “maintain their political power.”

“Voters have routinely rejected candidates who peddle transphobia and try to control their personal health care decisions,” an HRC spokesperson said. “Polling shows widespread American support for equality, Democrats as defenders of young people, and a rejection of anti-transgender rhetoric.”

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