The stakes are just as high for Congress this election as they are for the presidency

So much of the political focus is on the presidential race, and understandably so. This year has been one of the most eventful campaign cycles ever, from President Biden’s disastrous debate performance and subsequent withdrawal to Kamala Harris’ unprecedented rise to the two assassination attempts on Donald Trump’s life.

But with all the attention on the presidential candidates, it’s worth remembering that the composition of Congress is on the line as well. With both the House and Senate narrowly divided, the ability of one party to control both can make or break the agenda of the next president. And like the presidential race itself, right now it is to close to know which party will come out on top.

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At present, it seems like the Democrats may have an edge in winning back control of the House. Republicans hold a paltry majority of just four seats, so it wouldn’t take much for the Democrats to return to power and throw Mike Johnson out of the Speaker’s chair.

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Most House districts are drawn so that they are solidly stacked for one party or the other, so out of the 435 districts, only about 10 percent are really competitive. Of those, 11 lean Democrat, and five lean Republican. The remaining 26 are toss-ups.

That said, the momentum seems to be shifting toward Democrats as the races head into the final stretch. The Cook Report, a nonpartisan political analysis group, recently shifted two seats in Iowa from “lean Republican” to “toss up”, thanks in part to Harris’ surprising strength in the state. The Democrats are also working hard to recover their 2022 losses in deep blue states like New York and California.

Meanwhile, money favors the Democrats as well. The party has been spending big bucks in competitive races, outstripping Republicans. By contrast, Republicans have been privately worrying for months that newly energized Democrats have been raking in the cash while their own efforts have lagged. That has proven true, as Democrats raised $40 million more than Republicans in the last financial report, which covered up to August 31. Money can’t buy a victory, but it sure improves the odds of one.

On the Senate side, the map favors Republicans. Democrats hold only a two seat majority. Joe Manchin, a nominal Democrat-turned-Independent from West Virginia, who with bisexual Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) helped sink a lot of Biden’s agenda, has virtually guaranteed the GOP one seat with his decision not to seek reelection. Two of the Democrats’ incumbents – Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Sen. Jon Tester of Montana – are in red states and facing uphill battles.

Surprisingly, Republicans haven’t done a great job expanding the map beyond those seats. In most of the swing states, races are tight but favor Democrats. Even Brown has shown himself to be resilient in the face of a red tide, helped by the offensive comments his opponent, Bernie Moreno, made about suburban women and abortion.

Democrats could pick up a seat elsewhere, with their biggest chance in Texas, of all places, thanks to the universal disdain that Ted Cruz elicits across party lines. Democrat Collin Allred, a Congressman and former pro football player, is making a surprisingly strong showing against Cruz. Democrats are pouring money into the race, which is now rated as just leaning Republican, an embarrassment for Cruz.

How this all nets out will have a big impact on the next administration.

If Harris wins and Democrats have an unexpectedly strong showing in Congressional races, she will be in a much better position to actually get some of her initiatives passed. If Republicans control one or both Houses, she will not only get nothing passed, but she will be harassed with endless sham investigations (If the Senate is evenly split, the vice president is the deciding vote).

Trump faces a similar situation. If Republicans control both Houses, there is no stopping him and his worst excesses. He already has the majority of the Supreme Court in his pocket, and having control of all three branches would allow him to do whatever he wants, such as passing punitive laws targeting the trans community.

If Congress is split or Democrats control both chambers, then there would at least be something in place to stop Trump from doing the worst – though it will still be very, very bad. Congressional Republicans have proven that they will do whatever Trump tells them to do, including threatening government shutdowns and killing bipartisan legislation that actually gives them much of what they demand.

The close divide in Congress mimics the overall polarization of the nation. The stakes are just as high in the Congressional races as they are in the presidential race. Depending on how the races go, the next four years could see lots of progress or lots of pain.

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